Recorded on Veterans Day, with the bond market closed and Treasury futures trading on thin volume, episode 170 of Traders Edge opens with the charts. Jim Iuorio argues that the AI trade is the one fundamental story crowding out everything else, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 5%. Bob Iaccino shows the 10-year note price chart (price moves opposite to yield): four straight days of lower prices, a modest retracement inside a longer downtrend, and the 200-day moving average converging on the 50-day. He still expects yields to drift lower over the medium term. Gold gets a close look. Bob points out that gold has stopped moving in step with risk assets, falling as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied, and has shorted it using a put spread with staggered expirations, the top strike about five weeks out and the bottom about four weeks out, to put time decay in his favor. Jim, a long-term holder of physical gold, explains that he has been selling call spreads against his position for income. On the Nasdaq, Bob notes repeated closes below the 200-day moving average and a possible monthly double top; he says a November close below the prior low would point to a measured move near 24,575. Dylan Ratigan then joins from Milan. He argues that large AI companies have a strong financial incentive to push for a “regulatory moat,” because open-source and locally run language models could undercut their value. He describes a business owner in Europe running an open-source model on a low-cost rented server, and predicts that many users will eventually run their own models on a desktop. The conversation moves to antitrust, monopolies and why Dylan believes campaign finance shapes regulation, then to why voters in some towns have pushed back on data centers even when the centers fund local services. On positioning, Jim says he has taken most of his profits on large AI names but bought a small amount of NVDA, while Bob prefers to wait for a bottom to form rather than buy dips, citing the uncertainty around the company. Both point to Nvidia’s November 17 earnings as a key test. Key takeaways: – 10-year Treasury price and yield charts tell the same story in reverse; check which one you are reading. – Gold has recently moved opposite to stocks, a shift traders are watching. – Staggered expirations in a put spread can shift time decay in the trader’s favor. – Open-source AI models could change who captures value in the AI trade. This episode is educational and not investment advice. |
