This was the most event-packed week of October: a Fed decision and press conference on Wednesday, crude inventories the same morning, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings that night, then PCE and GDP on Thursday, plus a run of central-bank meetings that matter for currency traders. In episode 4 of Futures Unlocked, Irina explains how she approaches a week like this, and how she reads a chart from the top down. Her process starts on a clean chart, using only one indicator to mark major buying and selling zones. She begins with the weekly timeframe, then daily, then four-hour, and always lets price action override the news. Her setups: – NQ (her favourite): the weekly RSI is below 50, the MACD is turning down, and the daily chart shows a clear head-and-shoulders pattern whose measured target is around 26,800. She’d look for sell signals on a rally toward about 29,760, with targets at 29,068 and 28,668, and invalidation on a close above about 30,176. The Commitment of Traders report shows speculators crowded long since mid-October, which supports the short. – ES: a bearish weekly divergence, a possible head and shoulders on the daily chart, and a close below support point to a test of about 7,620. She prefers shorts, with invalidation around 7,780 and upside to about 7,865 if that fails. – Currencies: the Australian dollar shows a bullish divergence; she’d look for a long near 0.6971. The pound shows a similar setup. – Gold: in a strong downtrend, with the daily RSI below 50. She’d look to sell rallies into 4,100, 4,143 or 4,186, with a trend change only on a close above that zone (targeting about 4,312). Short-term longs are possible, but only to about 4,100. – Crude oil: still bullish, with buyers stepping in on bad news — a sign of a bull market. Pullbacks could reach 94 or even 82, but she expects a retest of the highs around $100 this week, with invalidation near 89. She also reports that across 18 weeks of published scenarios, about 85% of her 61 calls played out, while stressing that good analysis isn’t the same as good trading. Her “when not to trade” lesson: close positions or move stops to break even before major events, avoid valid-looking setups right before news, skip any trade you can’t explain in one sentence, and set a maximum risk for event days. On Wednesday, she’ll only scalp early and wait out the Fed. Key takeaways: – Read charts top-down, from weekly to four-hour. – Price action outranks news and positioning data. – Crowded positioning in the COT report can support a contrarian trade. – Know when not to trade, especially around Fed days. Futures trading involves substantial risk. This episode is educational and not a recommendation. 📅 Live every Monday at 12:00 PM ET |
