Traders Edge — Episode 143 | May-06-2026 Market Breadth And What That Means For The Next Move In Stocks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHwErSGk8Lc Welcome to tradeers the trader edge. I am Jim Yurio. That's Bob Aino. We are also twothirds of unfilteredinvestor.com. And do we have a treat for you the third? Our technical strategist Mike Arnold is going to be the guest when we bring him on. But before we do, Bobby, war is over. War is on. War's over. War's on. Today the war is over. Is this Lucy with the football? I thought there'd be people who might want to sell today, but they didn't. Kept grinding higher throughout the day. Give me your take. I I do think that the war is essentially over. Um, you know, again, if you consider what the military objective theoretically was. I'm not taking political sides here. I'm just saying I think they can't have a nuclear weapon soon anymore, if that was ever the case. All right. I'm putting all the qualifiers in there. I don't know. I wasn't there. And anybody watching, neither were you. So, you don't know how close they were. and you don't know if they can do it now, but if they can still do it now, yeah, it's a big waste of of some blood and a lot of treasure. But I think from a market perspect perspective, when you see what Trump said last night where um Iran started shooting at ships, we sank uh seven small boats according to Sentcom and they attacked again the UAE and then Trump says, "You know what? We're making progress on negotiations. We're going to loosen up the blockade a little bit." I think that's what the administration wants to do. They want the straight open. Yeah. And I think like we've talked to Mike Lee, we've talked to some other um people who know quite a bit about a lot of things. The notion is is that there's three possibilities. The war ends, that's great. The war doesn't end. We the the the strait keeps stagnant and closed and people keep buying from us. And I know that it'll take years for us to to really be able to write the supply chains worldwide. I understand that. But the notion, the third option that Iran somehow defeats us, that seems completely ridiculous, right? Yeah, that's not possible. This is not I, you know, Trump is not He promised no new wars. I get it. He broke that promise. But he's not a we're going to stay here for four years guy. He's not, right? That as a possibility. Before we get to our guests, I do. Well, so actually it's up to you because I want to talk about market breath and the narrow leadership. Is it broadening out? But should we bring in our guest first and then talk about that? Yeah, let let him join the conversation. Let's bring Mike Arnold who is the chief strategist for Path Trading Partners and the chief technical strategist for unfilteredinvestor.com. Michael, are the dead with John Mayer? Are they touring again this summer? Well, since Bobby Weir passed, uh, oh Bob Weir passed away. God, I totally forgot about that. We did a thing at my bar, the bar that I own. We did a Grateful Dead kind of half half night when he passed away just a couple months ago. Sorry, I forgot about that. That sort of puts a crimp on it. Yeah, sure does. Who what original members were there beside Phil Lesh? Is he there or is he dead, too? Phil died uh last October. Is there anybody left? Any original warlocks? Sorry. Are there any Bobby? Do you know what the Warlocks are? I don't know what you guys are talking about. The Warlocks were the Grateful Dead before they changed their name to the Grateful Dead. Are there any of the original members still alive and playing? Yeah. Yes. Uh, a couple of drummers. Uh, but remember when they were I Oh man, I forgot the year. It was in the 80s when they were banned from putting on a show. Maybe it was in Providence. I forget where it was on the east coast, but they were banned as the dead. So they they re-temporary branded themselves as the Warlocks and were booked as the Warlocks and then they got to perform and all the all the hardcore dead heads knew that the Warlocks were the dead. So yeah, that's awesome. I love that. That's really cool. Yeah, I've never actually seen despite the fact that I've, you know, followed their music and really enjoyed their music for a long time. Uh so I would like to see him at some point in time, but it's too late now probably. Let's talk about markets. So, the first thing I want to talk about is because we're going to get to MAG7s, but I want to talk about market breath before we get to Mike's technical analysis because a lot of people are concerned that a few a lot of people are saying it. A lot of this is the most narrow market. Uh my Trump impersonation is awful and I apologize. I'll work on that. But, um Bobby, is there anything encouraging about market breath that's happening that's to suggest it's broadening out? Well, I think it's getting better, but I'd rather go to Mike because he tracks it. I believe it's getting better from where it was a couple weeks ago. Mike writes a keynotes section on our newsletter and it's something he's been focused on probably three out of the last four uh issues which by the way we put them out weekly where he mentioned market breath. He mentioned market breath and I believe in the last one Mike correct me if I'm wrong you said it's getting better but it's still bad. Is that a good good way to paraphrase it? It was getting better, you know, even before this rally, but we are still, if you look at, I generally use the man volume summation index and we're still below where we were at the beginning of March on this on this strong rally and we are well below where we were last summer. So, we're still below the levels that we were on the last selloff and uh well below last summer. It's pulled back a little over over the last few days. So, the the breath over the short term has not improved. Either we're going to get, you know, a big rot a broader base rotation into uh you know, especially maybe after a pullback. Let's see if uh the the breath moves out. But even if we approach the end of February's highs before a substantial selloff, we're we're still losing uh we're still losing breath overall since last summer. And we were that's where we had the rounded top formation and everything else. So that's been essentially obliterated on this narrow rally which is which has just turned into uh Buy again, buy everything AI related, hand over fist, and use as much leverage as possible. The word pullback, Michael, my I'm going through my trading terms. I don't know what that is. What's a pullback exactly? It doesn't exist anymore. It doesn't exist anymore. Buy everything. Buy it all the time. It was one of It's that one of those historical things that used to happen, you know, even a couple months ago, but now I remember now. I remember now. Yeah. Yeah. So, what do you guys want to do first, Bobby? Let's put up the charts and and start from the top. Mike, you want to start with NASDAQ? We can start with NASDAQ. Go ahead, Luis. You can put it up. Thank you. By the way, I've talked a few times. This this price action, this everything reminds me of late 99, early 2000 in the dot. And how long did it last before it fell apart? It lasted for a a a couple more months. I mean, this could go on, but at least in the short Yeah. Can we keep going? Again, I'm seeing people who've thrown in the towel of this time it's different. Who said, "Oh, this time it's different." Uh-huh. It's It's never different. They've thrown in. I've heard people that have been on that bandwagon to say, "No, it's it's not different. We're going to go to the moon. There's never going to be another recession. AI solves everything." People are throwing in the towel. And that gives me room to pause. The mere fact the people I talk to are all into investing with leverage. Like what are your expected returns for the rest of the year? 50 60%. Okay. Okay. Good. I'm They're like, "Oh, I trade everything three times, four times. I'm I'm leveraged to the hill. Everything you know what? Do you buy AI?" What? Whatever it is, it's going to end tears. It's going to end in tears. But the question is when? We all know it's going to end in tears, but that might not be for three years, right? I'd say we're closer Well, we're closer to the end than not. Well, then let's talk to that chart. I look at that chart and that does nothing for me. It's just like it's gone through the room. All that tells me is that I'm late. What do you see? All it tells you is you're late. See, you're late. Uh the the the you meaning the you're late to getting into the party or the party? No, no. I I'm in the party. I mean, I was a bull, you know, starting a couple weeks ago and I'm in the party fine, but I'm not adding I'm taking things off at this point in time, right? Oh, yeah. Well, here's your monthly. I mean, there you go. Uh buy signal last month. You know, can it keep going? Yeah. One of the things I'd like to discuss I don't think we've ever touched on on this one. you we've tal talked about overextended from the rotation zone. One of the key metrics is overextended from the 50 uh whether you use the simple or the exponential. I just have the exponential up here. When it's when the NASDAQ's over 15% extended from its uh exponential moving average 50-day is time for uh caution when the S&P is over 10%. It's time for caution. That does not mean it has to crash. That means it's overextended and either we got to pause and let this thing catch up or we got to do a combination of pullback and pause. This is when I would not be getting married to shortterm positions and turn them into long-term plays. Uh again, where what are we now? Let's just see on the NASDAQ from the bottom. We are roughly Oh, we're roughly uh what is that? We're close to 10 extended. Let me get to the NDX. If my if if things are There we go. The NASDAQ the Let's just go to cash. The cash is uh getting nine and a half right now percent above the 50 EMA for people listening percent above the 50 EMA which is is getting stretched and you can see let's take a look at some of the other times even back in October of 25 uh you know we're we're stretched uh 6% % if we go all the way let's and on the weekly basis let's do it on the weekly the weekly is a much better that's what I was referring to when we were talking at 15% I should have uh clarified that but the weekly right now is at 14.78 uh the when we were be in November of last year before we had the decent at least somewhat pullback and sideways we were at uh 14.35. You know, this is the time when I wouldn't be piling in. Now, can it keep going higher? Uh we were at 16% in July of 24. So, these are the things if you want to go way back to do. Can this thing keep going? Uh if you want to see the peak of the dots at the highs to the we were uh 35. So yeah, can it keep going? Yes. Is anything above 15 way out of norm? Yes. Has it gone 35 one time in history? Yeah. But are do you want to keep counting on this? No. If you look at the S&P right now, which is do that off of anything over 10% is very stretched. And these are the futures again on the weekly basis. We're over 10% right now. just just over 10%. Uh so the these things at least in the short term I would not be piling in and then we're going to see on this next pullback and the bounce. Are we getting a wider range of participation in this or does it stay narrow? That's going to be key. So, we're really going to be focused on the breadth and if it can you give me some parameters of what to look for in that what to look for. Well, yeah. Like when I'm looking at market breath like where where how how do you even measure that? I rarely use the easy way. Do you want the easy way that's that's uh good for everyone? That's free for everyone. Yeah, absolutely. Because I like free things for people so they don't have to subscribe to anything. Let me just change my screen sharing real quick. Uh, we should have music to fill that air. I could sing you. Why don't you sing somewhere? No, that's Bobby Dar. Beyond the Once you can put up the sharing again, just go. It's the the CNN fear and greed index. Okay. If you if you go about halfway down the page, you see stock price price Brent. They have the mlen mlen summation index and here's what I was talking about before uh where you see here are the peaks here were the peaks from last uh just under a just over a year ago you know we're up around the 1600 mark the peaks going into the uh beginning of March were about 1370 right Now we're at about 1213. Here was a big selloff and now we've bounced back. So if you go watch this, especially after the next pullback and you want to see this at least approaching this 1370,400 area to have it broadening out. Okay. If if we keep staying below this, we are getting a divergence on breath with narrow leadership just carrying the heavy load. Okay, Bobby. So, just explain something to people, Mike, for context when you're talking about I would not I would be cautious. I would not be aggressive. You know, we have four current long positions in our newsletter. We recommended three new ones. You're not saying stay out of the market. You're not even saying that it won't continue to go up. You're not even saying it'll go down. You're just saying be selective. It could go sideways. It's going to struggle as a market on the whole to continue going much higher. Is that correct? It's go well, we could at least get a pause. If the breadth can it can broaden out, could it easily push higher? Yeah. If you're piled in everything AI related, that could e trigger. We could actually get a pullback. I mean, you have stuff like here's your monthly chart of AMD. Uh, you know, they and they they posted decent earnings. It's it's hyper expensive again, but since the beginning of April, you know, it's it's up aund close to 110%. I would not be running into things like AMD tomorrow. No. Okay. So at some point in time I bought I increased my position in NLR today uh which is the um the VANC uh nuclear because again you guys see this was a combination of what I've been learning from you over the last few years and with just a standard what seemed like a breakout of a pennant. Can you do me a uh can you do me a solid and and bring this one down? Yeah, I mean NLR is still in a bullish trend. It's been in consolidation since last October. Uh, you know, the 155 is going to be a very key level. It's to start getting a weekly close above that. It's approaching it now. uh whether it can sustain something above it. It's I mean it's it made its all-time highs last October and it's still off what about uh about 11% off its all-time highs. So, you know, it's still in an uptrend. It's still in a monthly uptrend, holding the monthly rotation zone. So that could definitely break out if if the actual capex that a lot of companies are still talking about comes to fruition. We've seen though some of the capex especially the earnings report they've they've not actually done their not actually met the estimates of what they deploy already. So that's one of the reasons something like this is still in consolidation because yes you have c you have the AI driving the power grid necessities but if the astronomically high buildout does not happen or there's some other things uh that if this is another risk also you just look at they guided they got their second quarter guidance is almost double what they just put Yeah. Right. So it's very easy for that not to happen. Yes. There's very the up the projections are uh very aggressive shall we say. So also people don't consider one other thing is at some point there's going to be more efficient there's people are still working on more efficient ways to train these models that are less dependent on uh increased power assumption and less dependent on constantly buying and expanding the uh chip base and the uh so I'm not saying that's going to happen in the next month or so but at some point you will have models that become much more efficiently trained. Okay. So, my my question then to you, and again, I didn't have the luxury of being able to bounce it off you today. I felt like I had to kind of make a move quick. I sold a lot of spy and bought some puts on the remaining and then put some of that money into LR NLR. That doesn't look like a particularly bad trade to you right now, right? I mean, you're just working on a rotation. At least it paused in the in the pair trade versus the over uh run the the ex extreme runup in the spiders versus at least a consolidation, right? I don't have any short signals on the on the radar yet besides us just hitting very key overextended levels, but there are no topping signs yet. So I'm not nec I mean I'm when we hit levels it's key targets because we always list targets is lightening up something but would I short this yet? No. And I didn't I didn't I just took some money out and then redeployed it into that other name. But yeah. Yeah. Can because can can this thing keep going to you know it's buying with all abandoned at this point which we're going vertical in too many names and even Qualcomm I mean they which has historically been a you know they make chips for cell phones right oh we're getting into the AI game all you need to say is well we talked about I mean I've been on with you guys before and stuff if you just announce Even if you're not in ALA, just like the the shoe company, but even if you're not in AI, if you just say we're going to get in the game. Yeah. What if I take Brance of Palatine public, my restaurant, and call it Brance AI, and take it public now, do you think I'd get a good return? Um, moving right along. You don't have to answer that. Then another comp I I remember a diner in New Jersey did the Bitcoin thing years ago. They did. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And they were and they shortterm but not long term. So shortterm it worked out great. I'm sure the owners got out looking fine. But anyway, yeah. So, you know, that's the whole thing. We need to get broader participation. The other thing though is so many things are extremely expensive still. You from a from a multiples standpoint, right? Yeah. Yeah. You have things that Yes. Like again, uh Costco, yeah, you know, they're beating with earnings and everything, but we're still trading a trailing PE of over 52. Even if even if that comes down to 40s, you're you're still very expensive. It's why we liked getting into Target a long time ago versus things like Walmart, which is trading at a trailing PE of 47.91 and hasn't exceeded its highs from February. So, would I be running into stuff like that or or or CocaCola, which I mean, at least it's only trading 25 with some kind of dividend, but it it's not a bargain stock. There are some short-term trades in these things, but things that I I would back up the truck and get married to these companies. I would not be getting married to these companies. There's a trade versus an investment. And a lot of the things that I'm seeing that people are still somewhat piling into, even more conservative things are not a good investment. They can be like a two to three week trade. We like Coca-Cola's triggered a uh double bottom that could retest its highs if the breath keeps expanding. But again, wouldn't get married. There are other things that, hey, I would really be interested in getting in longer term that are so beat up and so off everybody's radar screen. When I bring them up, it's just like, why why would I want that? Right. Makes sense. Yeah. Before we go into the typicals, there's a couple of stocks I want to look at. One of which we recommended in last week's newsletter, which was Take 2 Interactive, which is TTWO. Um, we recommended that one. We're now theoretically in it. The qualifier we put on here is we needed the weekly close um because the trigger was on a weekly chart. We needed the weekly close which it looks like we're going to get. We don't really know. There's another two days left. What's that? We don't know yet. Yeah, we don't know yet because another two days left. We have two days with and and non-farm payrolls are Friday and right the market's been overextended. We got the bounce in in take two, but it's it's again starting to see some some selling pressure at the prior breakdown zone. That's why we needed the weekly level, right? Sounds good. The second one I want to look at, Jimmy, you'll be excited about this is Palo Alto Network. Alto, I have it. Yeah. Here's why I say it, Mike. Because on the weekly, there was a double bottom right at the 200. Okay. That double bottom, however, was going against the rotation zone even though it was the base of it was at the 200. It broke out, closed above with a stretched move higher. Um, but now it's breaking and closing above the 50W week. Um, I kind of like a pullback test and then move back higher to get into this. Not in the newsletter, just something for myself. So, what do you think of this chart on a weekly and a daily? it. I mean, now we're trading against the daily 200. Yep. Uh, I'd definitely be looking for on the weekly basis, we're in overbought territories with cycles at a top. I'd be looking for definitely a pullback and would be patient. There is a daily double top pattern. So, if that triggers, then I'd be a little more patient on a pullback or it would have to base and really start basing above uh the 187 post market today. It's trading above there, but it needs to form a base above the 200 on the daily b on the on the daily chart, right? Again, we have to hold that and being overbought conditions. I would definitely rather see a pullback than trying to chase this at this point. So, what if because I have some stops in to buy it if it settles above that 200. Uh, do you think that that's an interesting tact or something you don't agree with at all? That's fine if you don't. It's an interesting tact. Again, with the markets being this extremely overbought, I'd like to see what this does on the pullback. The broad pullback, right? The broad pullback of the markets. Yeah. If this can sit and hold, you know, hold these key support levels, great. Then you know what? I if I was getting in it now, I'd begin it with very tight stops. That makes sense. And then if it can maintain these levels, great. You know what? on the next bounce. Then after the pullback, it could resume higher. The key thing you want to watch to flip because we still technically haven't flipped back to continued bullish probabilities, it's got to close above 19210. Okay, really do here. If you wanted to um get into this and say, you know what, I like it above there. You know, we've had a couple weak days. It's holding up. Mike says about his tops, tight stops. You could put it on a close below that April 30th low, which would be the entry for the double top because the targets for the double top would be below the 50. Yeah. Yeah. Kind of a combination of things. It's not how I'm going to play it because I'm cons looking more at the weekly, but I do need it to clear the 100 or the uh 200 on the daily to get a get a position. We'll take a quick break in the show. Luis, will you put the banner up? For you guys who are watching this, we totally appreciate the support you've given us on this project and we love it. The questions you guys ask are amazing. We are asking a favor of you. Now, please try Trade Air Pro options trading platform for free for three months. We talked to people who've been trading options for decades and some just for days and they say the same thing about Trade the Pro. They say it is the deal. It is the gold standard. And again, do it because you're interested in it or do it as a favor to us. But please just do it. We appreciate it. And now back to the show. hobby. Let's take a look at gold. Mike, I by the way have not sold a stitch of long-term gold. Nothing. No, I had on a put structure that I still made some money on money on. I put on about a week and a half ago, but yeah. Yeah. I mean, today gold's triggering a double bottom pattern against Oh, how about it? Yeah, a a trade because we could then approach, you know, the 4,800 level. Does that mean we're going to new highs? No. This is just a short-term trade. Overall, uh, it has confirmed the major double top pattern, but never triggered it. So, right now, gold to me is just a a short-term trading mechanism on on key buy entries. It's got to get above on currently we're on uh the June contract, so which will roll again. But right now I'm based off the June contract, it's got to get above 4934 to get to sustained uh probabilities in bullish mode for the next higher move. And it has not been able to do that. And those levels have been in place since uh the selloff back in March. So it's we've not been able to get above 4934 on a closing basis. So that's still on any bullish signals. I need to see followth through above that level. Otherwise, it's just a short-term trade into a massive consolidation pattern. And we tested th that area on April 17th. It didn't quite get up there, but we tested it and failed. And I looked at this as sort of a short-term kind of rollover. And to me, it was like we have to get above the 50-day before I consider even doing anything. um that 50-day it has been testing it and flirting with it and it has like no volume until today and it still failed exactly there at that 50-day. Yeah. And even if it gets above that 50-day you're just getting to a major continue basing right resistance area. That's why I mean I there I had back in uh you know towards the end of March there was a bullish buy signal that again couldn't close above 49.94 so it was trailing got taken out on a trailing basis and this is the first real good entry since that time there was a little very aggressive entry at the end of April but this is the first high probability pattern but that even the target isn't that 4934. Could it hit it? Sure. But I'm not counting on that until it does. Can I add some fundamental backstory to gold real quick for people if people are interested? Okay, here's my belief and anyone can chime in and tell me I'm wrong or not. We put in that massive high in January along with silver when the runup was amazing. It went parabolic. So, it starts to fall. As it's falling and people getting out of longs, the war begins. Normally, in geopolitical tension, people run to the safety of gold. It's on the list. Well, not if some of the emerging market economies that have been or uh countries that have been buying gold for the last three years need to sell gold to boost their currency or to buy crude oil with it. So whether or not that was happening or whether or not the rumor of it was going to happen, it was going to put and which I think was a little bit of both. I think it put a lid on gold. So I do have the belief and today was a little glimpse into that if we can resolve the situation in Iran, I think one of the headwinds for gold is removed and that may coincide with breaking through all those key and important levels. Bobby, first, do you agree with that? Yeah, I do. I mean, a lot of people are talking about central banks um selling gold, but we have to remember two things. Number one, it's been extremely recent. And number two, it has not been the major central banks according to the world gold council. So to me, the fundamentals for gold um I think a lot of this gold selling was people reaching out for margin calls after the market started collapsing. And quite frankly, after gold started collapsing, they needed to get out of it. So the speculation is now out of it. And I say this very, very loosely, gold is probably properly priced now. Whereas when we got up to 5600 and change, whatever that was, that wasn't properly priced. There was speculation in that, right? So now we go forward with the fundamental case on gold. You know, in the past when you got a dip, the central banks were buying. Right now they're they're buying just not as aggressively, not as much, and not as many of them. Okay, Mike, where is the what sounds the alarm for the all clear to go bagging gold? What what what what prices? The all clear was back at that uh 49 4934 on the June contract. That will change a little for when we roll, but that's close enough that not only is that the 62 and a half, Mike? Yeah, that's a 62 and a half that flips the probabilities. It's also I mean it's also a key resistance level and was a prior it's right around the prior support level. Uh there was a major support level back at 4,900 which we bounced off before the massive draw down in at the end of March. So that level 4934 exceeds those also. Got it. Bobby, this may be silly, but we have to look at crude. I think it's probably I don't even know what I'm looking for. I don't even know what I'm looking for when I look at crude. Yeah. Uh, exactly. We're done. No, I mean, we're we're if you look at this on on the weekly time frame, we're still just caught in this huge volatile range. The key thing to the downside, and this is why I'll just stick to my numbers rather than specul whether I speculate on gold like with why it's doing what it's doing or crude what's going to tip it. Crude the number on the downside for me is 7917. Just remember 79. Got it. 79. You close below there, which would mean the straight's probably back open. And uh you know there's maybe a a peace deal carved out. If we if we go below there or we look like we're going below there with momentum, then my targets are roughly uh 70 bucks and then 6304. Until that happens, I just can't do anything from the short side. And I'm still uh looking for short-term long setups for bounce plays, not to get greedy, not gold's going to I mean crude's going to 300. No, these are for bounce plays only until we close below that 79 level. When something is so driven by headline risk more so than than any other asset, does that cause you to take a big step back and and look at the like, okay, I I see my technicals and I see what they're telling me, but I also know that any big headline could make me wear it. Does that do you factor that in? Yeah. Which is why I decrease my position size. That's what I would have guessed. You too, Bobby. Right. Well, it's it's almost automatic. Jim, because like if you look at these wide ranges, okay, you look at the best support, the best ris resistance, when I'm looking at wide ranges like this, and I know I'm speaking for Mike here, too, but more loosely, I don't get my stops from I only want to lose $500 or, you know, I just want to be below yesterday's low or above yesterday's high. I look at look for significant levels. I look for GAN levels. I look for moving averages that are critical, whether it's a 50-day or a 200, and then I go multi-time frame. And when you're looking at a volatile chart like this, the stops are inevitably farther away, which means your position size is smaller. So, it sort of mathematically takes care of itself. When you have tight stops, your position size can be bigger because you always want to, in my view, you always want to lose the same amount of money and you want to make multiples of that amount on the upside. So, you change your sizing. You change my size. If I'm looking, I'm not doing this, but if I were getting long crude oil right now and my stop is below $79, like Mike, I think it was 79, right? Yeah, 78 97. So, $79, right? And I'm entering here at 95. You have a tiny position. I mean, I've got like one micro. Yeah. In order for my dollar risk to be about the same. So, it ends up kind of taking care of itself except for that first move. Yep. You know, so that makes sense. point. I mean, there's a potential buy signal tomorrow on break above 10270 with a follow-through close above that level, but the stop would have to be below 8866. So, I mean, right there, just imagining that you're talking about a percentage move on the stock, Jimmy, being somewhere around 14 and a half% to trigger your stock to the downside. That's a big boy play, right? Yeah. So, it ends up shrinking your position size down to nothing just mathematically. Yeah. I like it. I love it. Yeah. For what now? Bitcoin. Yeah. Let's do Bitcoin. Bitcoin finally returned to the key major breakdown area from back from last November. What was November? We had support there. December we had the support there. We broke the support in January. It's finally returned to that area and the declining 200. Uh I mean Bitcoin's also been you know a risk ass I will put it in the risk asset. Yep. It's not I mean you'd be you would have been better off in a into everything AI than into Bitcoin recently. I've Let me just say something real quick because this is another one of those examples. This is why I like technical analysis. If you're in the uh my friend Scott Nations camp who says this just looks like a lot of lines and squiggles. Look at where the 200 ended up being on Mike's last chart. The 200 Bitcoin met the 200 at almost the exact same level that it was support and then it broke down through. So now you've got not only that flat level but the 200. Is that magic? No. It's because technical analysis is reflecting what's going on behind these candles. It's the mob mentality reflected in price. And that's what I like about it so much. You cannot argue that these two things came together and it's not a coincidence. It's the mob mentality of the market that these things end up happening. This is why they work. This happens all the time. We'll find targets on a measured move and the target just happens to be below the next resistance level. I'm sorry. Guys like Bobby and I didn't end up being way more about technical analysis and fundamental analysis because you just because of some whim and we talk to somebody who convinces of that. We've been literally watching this for close to 40 years and the only thing that genuinely works is good technical analysis. You can have a fundamental opinion on something. Guess what? So many other people might have it at the same exact time and the price already reflects it. This is the only way. What's that? Tell the Chipotle story again. Yeah. Tell it. Yeah. Few years back when Chipotle had the uh E. coli scare, I was still going into the exchange at that point and there was that Chipotle, I think it was on Canal and Madison there, right? Yeah. Oh, yeah. And I drive by and I call Mike from my car. I'm like, we got to buy Chipotle. I know they had E. coli, but the line's out the door. Like, nobody cares. And he goes, we can't buy it yet. It was three and a half years later when he told me he can buy it. As E. coli kept drive. It wasn't even ecoli. It was just the the Chipotle stock kept going lower and lower and lower. That little spikes go lower, little spikes go lower. I literally the stock moved I want to say 70% lower from where I said we need to buy it. Somewhere in that range, not the entire price of the stock where I said we need to buy it to Mike. I remember Mike calling me one day or texting me whatever and goes, "We can buy Chipotle now." I'm like, "What the are you talking about?" Because I had forgotten all about it at that point. Yeah. Not. No thanks. I'm not hungry. And again, things can keep to that point. Things once they are in a trend are more likely to stay in that trend. Excuse me. And things get get beat up. It can get way more beat up. I mean, and momentum, like we say, that's what the those squiggly lines tell us, the sentiment and the momentum. What is this stock? Uh, Lululemon. Oh, I have so many people now people are starting to get I love this. I love this because I was asked for like mo 24 2024 2025 is it time to buy Lulu yet? Is it time to buy Lulu yet? No. And then we triggered a massive monthly double top pattern. Is it time to buy Lulu yet? No. Now if I bring up Lululemon, it's like I don't care about that. Why would I That's never coming back. Well, guess what? Do we have a great buy signal yet? No. But it is is it getting on my radar screen for longer term buy signals? Yes. Can it keep going down? Sure it can. That's why I don't have a triggered buy signal yet. But this is where be once people completely give up on something. You know, it was, hey, when can I buy Lulu? And for a long time it was, hey, just buy Lulu every dip. Now it's people don't give a crap about Lululemon. And I'm starting to not not do anything yet, but I'm keeping an eye, especially if we get some monthly buy signals. Boy, Lulu's is it going to disappear? Do you think Lululemon's going to just completely go out of business? I honestly don't know. I don't know that much about fashion trends and the competition within. Do you don't think so? I stopped wearing a lot of my athleisure, but I think Lululemon is going to get bought before. Exactly. They have a cult following absolute cult following with the core power yoga people and and the like and you know have a debt of gratitude to the owner of that because women look fantastic in those. I Yeah, I know you're not supposed to say that in 2026. I don't care. Fire me. Cancel me. Women look great in Lululemon for the most part. Some don't, but I'll be the judge of that. So, I agree. That's why it's on my radar screen because I mean look, do Bob, do you know what the uh PD the trailing PTE ratio right now is for Lulu? Lulu? No, I haven't looked. What is it? Nine. You want me to look it up? 9.8. What is it? 9.8. Yeah, that's uh I to be honest, I don't know what drove him here. I don't watch the stock much. I know it's getting a little bit of bounce because uh the founder Chip Wilson three bucks in Bobby Chip Wilson the founder actually uh escalated his proxy fight. He wants to replace the board. Uh he says reshape. I say replace, right? And I I'm not really sure. I mean, it was pure competition for this where everybody wanted Lululemon, but the pricing uh was a hurdle for a lot of people. Now, there's Athletica, there's Target brands, and you know, all the regular Nike and and Adidas have their own yoga pants and everything. So, everyone pretty much um copied them for the most part. And, you know, you go from there and it's like people just said, "Look, look, they're making stuff almost as good, just doesn't have Lulu on it." So, I call it the Genesis effect. You know, Genesis is Kia and a bunch of Mercedes, BMW, Acura, Lexus people started buying Genesis. Hyundai 20,000 less. Yeah, you made a mistake. Hyundai, not Kia. Uh, well, is it? Yeah, Hyundai. You're right. You're right. W just said, this is funny. Wij just said, "Specialty retail is where love goes to die." That's a quote by Jeff Mackey. Uh, Luis, I don't know if you can put that up, but because I kind of ambushed him with that, but Specialty Retail is where love goes to die by Jeff Mackey. Yeah, Louis not watching. Yeah, there he is. Yeah, I'm not gonna I'm not going to be hooking my retirement money into retail probably. I don't think so. Maybe a trade if Mike tells me to, but I agree. Retail, I don't understand it. I understand uranium. It makes power. Yeah. Yeah. What now, Bobby? Oh, I'm sorry. Um, let's look at a couple that we have on. I want to look at Monster Mike. M MS M MNST. I hate that symbol. I always want to do I always want it to be a different symbol. I do it backwards all the time for some reason. I want it to be like MSTR, you know, like monster. Yeah. Something that makes more sense, you mean? Yeah. Yeah, MNST. I mean, it triggered again. It triggered a inverse head and shoulders, came back to test the neckline and and bouncing. It's facing some major resistance at the 78 mark. So, it's just in entry and trail stop at this point. Entry now or entry if you already got it on? It's we have we have that one on. Yeah, you have it on. We have it on. Okay, good. Yeah, we have it on. And we also like we also have Dover and I think Dover hit target one and target two. You want to look at Dover, Mike? We put this one on a week or two ago. And uh target one was 22370. I believe that's hit. Am I right? Yeah, that was hit. That was hit. Okay. Second target was 22640. That was hit. And third, the third target which is still in play. Still in play. So we're looking at that one. Same thing um for that kind of thing happened with target where we reached target one, target two, but target was always a longer term play. So we hit target one on our target trade which target target. We hit uh our first price target in target which was 12. How many times can you say freaking target in one paragraph? I know man targets target. Yeah. Okay. So, the first price we wanted to see in Target was 124.95. The second was 13265 and then the third was 14250, which I don't believe we've hit yet, right? No. And so, but based on this one, Mike, we talked about this being a longer term trade. This one has been on for a while. Given where is its PE? First of all, I haven't looked at it. I could pull it up if you don't have it up. Target's now back to 1571. Okay. It still seems to me like we should hold it. Oh, yeah. After hitting that third target. Now, can we get a can we get a pullback in target? I'm actually expecting a pullback in target. It's been up one, two, three, four, five. Five as of last week, five straight weeks in a row coming from, you know, 90 bucks to where are we trading right now? 100 roughly 130. So, are we overdue for a pullback? Yeah, completely. But this is that's why it's a long-term hold. Can I fill in real quick why Target gave us those really attract attractive multiples is because they were kind of caught in that tsunami of the woke companies that needed to be punished by the market and they were punished severely and that was Bud, Disney, Target. Um, you the decisions they made to couch out to whoever government was putting pressure on them. The market just said screw you. were not dealing with this and that's why they got clobbered and that then they don't people weren't not going there. My wife still shops there but people weren't buying the stock. So the business model was still good. That that filled in pretty well, right, Bobby? Yeah. Know I think that's exactly correct and they're they're rebounding from that now because those kinds of I'm not shopping here anymore. Bud Light is even doing well again. Yeah. You know, so those things don't last forever because of Shane Gillis. Bud Light that I love Shane Gillis. commercial where he goes, "The bride wants three three Bud Lights." Uh, but let's just look at Can we just pause for a second because you could you have the fundamental story, but what was we had a percent B buy back that was triggered in December on a monthly basis. Okay. And then it triggered back in February. It triggered a massive monthly double bottom which finally just reached its target last month. So yeah, it's that's also why I'm expecting a pullback is because we've hit a key target on something. But I'm not, you know, this can easily keep going higher into the between the 50% and the 62 and a half. It's bounced off the 50% harmonic also. But separate from the fundamentals, whatever you want to test the fundamental story to, uh, it it had two key buy patterns that are have played out since that time. So, it's why I don't really worry. I'll look at some key fundamentals for long-term stuff, but I, as I said, like in Lulu, I'm going to be watching for a a technical buy pattern, which we do not have. We got one. We got two in target and it cons continued to run. This is the thing. I'll I'll keep an eye on some fundamentals. It's why target came on my radar screen. But then I'm not going to do anything until I get some kind of technical setup and then I'm just going to let it run and and use my targets there. I said two. You want to wrap, Bob? You got anything else on your mind? Last one that I want to look at, Mike? Good. I talked about having a consumer staples um thesis at the beginning of the year. It's been wrong. XLP had a weekly double top trigger. And what I wanted to ask Mike so that everybody can listen to I'm sorry, double bottom. Double bottom. I'm sorry. It's the recent double bottom there, Mike, on the weekly. Yeah. What I want to ask you is the post market is showing this ETF at about 8421. Not sure why. Um, that's close to the entry level based on what's happened so far. Can people enter this or no? Yeah, it can. It can still be entered because it hasn't hit the 150. Is that why it hasn't hit 8520 would be the key level that I wouldn't enter after that. You should already be in it. I mean, or at this point, if this thing starts closing below 83, uh I I'd be very patient on any buy setups, but in the short term, as long as this holds above 83, it could easily be entered. I have a question for you, Bobby, about this show. Should we have this show be two to three Chicago time? Three to four. So, like I look at this like, I missed that one. I want to buy it, but then the market's closed and the markets are illquid. Should we if we this maybe people do want to trade off this when we do it with Mike and I love when we do it with Mike. I don't know. Something for you to think about since you're the brains behind the operation. No, we could do it. It's believe it or not, it's harder to get guests for that time. Oh, is it really? Okay. The market's still open, especially because this is more of a stock and trading focused show than otherwise. Yeah. Gotcha. Gotcha. Gotcha. Uh, are we uh wrapped? We are wrapped. Okay. I This has been Traders the Trader Edge. By the way, tomorrow we're flying to Palm Beach, Bobby and I. But on Friday, we are part of the Tradeers Trader Fest conference at Palm Beach uh at the PGA National Resort in Palm Beach Gardens. And it should be a fantastic time. We're on a panel with Kenny Pulkari. And if you guys, you know, can you make some last minute plans and come join us, that would be awesome. That's Mike Arnold, our chief strategist at unfilteredinvestor.com and the chief strategist pathtrading partners. And Bobby has something to say. I will buy the first drink for the first person who sends me a Twitter. If you're coming to the event, send me a Twitter message, whether you tag me or if you can DM me or whatever. If you can guess what two color shirts I'm going to be wearing tomorrow. Okay. Right. I will guess. Charcoal and black. Those are my guesses. going to be one shade of black and another shade of black, but I just want to see if anybody can guess it. Fantastic. All right, thank you guys very much. This has been the Trader Edge. You know how the financial world goes. Here comes the buzzkill. Please make sure to take some time to read this boring disclaimer. We will owe you one.