Man And Machine Ep. 233 Tradier Hub Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFdR_ala0pUWhat is going on, everybody? Happy Monday and welcome back to Man and Machine episode 233. That's not a made-up number. We've [clears throat] just been doing this that [music] long. Um and today we have a very special guest, uh Matt Cashman, principal of investor education over at the OCC. Matt, what's going on, man? How are you? Hello, hello. Happy to be here bright and early before the open, ready to talk about all things options, optionality, automation, like whatever you guys want to talk about. Let's talk. You know what? There's a reason you're a repeat guest on the show. You're easy. We've had Matt here before plenty of times to educate uh our audience here and it's always been fantastic. So excited to get into it today. Um on the agenda are a few things. Of course, we'll do stocks in real life. We have a stock we'll talk about quickly, take a look at the chart, talk about some real-life experiences with the stock. We're also going to talk about the very soon upcoming big change for the stock market, specifically retail traders and the fact that the uh well, the PDT rule's seen some big changes after, I believe, 25 years of being in place. Uh so, we'll talk about the big drop there and some opportunities and maybe some scary I think I think it's going to be good and bad and we're going to get into all that. So, um that and so much more. I know we just are coming off of uh some great events down in Florida, both with Tradier Brokerage and the OIC event, which we'll probably tease and talk about a little bit and go from there. So, um Ben, did I miss anything? Otherwise, happy to just get into it. No, let's get it. Let's give Matt a chance to talk [music] for a minute because I'm I'm curious. Yeah, I'm curious to know about the OIC event, Matt. I know you played a big part in that event. By the way, for everybody that's tuning in, this this is where the event was. Good pictures. PGA National Resort. I don't know how much work you're getting done here. But a lot of work done. A lot of of work done. Tell us about it, man. What was it? I did not play golf. I did not No? No? Nor did we, actually. I was in that pool precisely twice during the entire time I was there. One was after the event was over. Nice. go. There you go. So, yeah, so our event was the Options Industry Council Options Industry Conference. So, it's a conference usually pointed toward the people that are in the industry, professionals that are in the industry. So, it's a lot of exchange a lot of exchanges, data providers, trading firms, market making firms. You you you get the deal. There's a lot more fintech that's that's involved recently. And this year we got really close to 500 people there, which is Wow. of Uh when you're talking about the options business, right? It's a you know, it's a relatively small business, right? I mean, it's But they it pa- it it punches above its weight as far as volume and everything, but it's a relatively small business. So, 500 people is a great milestone for us. This was the 44th annual Options Industry Conference. Yep. And um I'm fortunate enough that I was the MC 3 years ago, 4 years ago, and they've asked me to do it every year for the last 3 or 4 years. Look at that. So, it's a nice thing to be able to do. It's great to be able to put together panels talking about interesting developments in the options business, things that are happening, things that people will to know about. The experts that are on stage are very expert, right? They're people that have been in the business for a really long time. And um we just get a lot of representation from across the industry and we have lots of great conversations about where the industry is, where it's going, what's going on beneath the surface, interesting trends, etc., etc. Obviously, there's been a lot of changes over the last 5 years. And uh and so that's what it's all about. It's a It's a great conference that I'm happy happy to be a part of it. Awesome. Awesome. How was the Tradier conference? I only caught the first day and then I had to leave the next day. We caught you at the important part, the cocktail hour, right? Yeah. The networking event. Um so yeah, we were able to meet up, which was fantastic. The event itself was amazing, truthfully, and we've we've been saying that since we left. Um Tradier and Cboe through what I believe to be we'll just call it the first annual um live event. I know Tradier's doing a ton of that stuff now. Um and it was it was awesome. The night before was great for any of the early arrivals. It was just a one-night, one-day event. Um great networking the night before. People felt like we were perfectly placed. Um we had partners coming up to us, traders coming up to us, and having [music] some fantastic conversations. And then we were able to present amongst what we feel to be, kind of like you said, Matt, the room um for options trading, equities trading, anybody involved in Tradier and Cboe land. And a lot of retail traders were there as well, um which was exciting, right? To see the impact delivered immediately. Um great educators. We had uh Henry Schwartz from Cboe. I believe he was probably at your event. If he wasn't, um then that would be a surprise. But uh he was fantastic. Of course, Dan Raju and the whole Tradier Team, Lex and Molly were great MCs and I think we walked out of there with a potential, you know, I think we're bringing some more people over into the automated trading space, which which is going to be excellent. So, Ben, I don't know if you had any comments on the event. Yeah, no, everything everything went great. It was [music] um got to meet a lot of people that we've been talking to like over camera in person, Matt, you you being one of them. And uh it's always great to meet people face-to-face. So, that was, you know, meeting everybody was the highlight for me. Anybody that we haven't haven't met in person yet. And the good weather and the good food and the good drinks all just helps everything move, doesn't it? So, On beach lifestyle. Just greasing greasing the wheels of commerce as it were. That's exactly right. Um all right, so Ben, why don't we jump into stocks in real life? I think we got a good one today and then we can go from there. Yeah, so stocks in real life today we're going to talk [music] about Coinbase, ticker c o i n. So, first of all, we usually start by talking about our personal experiences with whatever company that we're talking about. Matt, I don't know how much you can talk about these things given your particular role. I'll start us and say I have a Coinbase [music] account. I've placed some trades in Coinbase before. Um then I decided it's going to be easier for me to trade crypto and cheaper elsewhere. [music] Um but I won't mention the elsewhere because we don't like to talk about other brokers on this show cuz there's only one broker that matters to us. Um Matt, how to butter You know You know how to butter the bread. I like it. Good job. us, you know? What about your experience with the with coin Coinbase? Uh I I do have a Coinbase account. I've had a Coinbase account from day one. Uh Uh honestly, I also have a Coinbase one credit card. Nice. Okay. Wow. Our user. I get uh I get rewards given like paid to me in in Bitcoin, which is interesting. Oh, you're in. Uh I can talk about this more than more than most things because we uh we don't clear, you know, most of the crypto stuff we don't clear. So, Yeah. um Yeah, so I I have been a user for a long time of crypto. I've been So, I don't really trade in and out of it. Uh I'm kind of uh stacking. Just Yeah. Uh let's call that. That's right. That's stacking. That's right what you're doing, I guess. Yeah. Um So, if you had to give Coinbase uh a rating in the App Store, what are you giving it? Uh the actual app itself? Yeah, yeah. Well, or just yeah, the the app. I mean, we know it's larger than the User experience, user ability. easy is it to trade? Yeah. What's our uh What's our rating system? Up to five stars? let's go five stars. I mean, you know, maybe I could have been a little bit more direct. Yeah, five. One out of five. Decimal places. it a I'll give it a 3.76. Okay. Hopefully Coinbase not listening. That's pretty good. Look, if five is, you know, the best there can be, then 3.75 is great. I'm just kidding. I said 3.76. Oh, I'm so sorry. Okay, we did then then you know what? Then we can round up almost if we want to. Um so, we can look at the chart here. Um What Ben, how What's the time frame on this? This is a a one-year chart. And Doug says you have to convert your rating to Litecoin first. Nice. Uh so, this is a one-year chart. We've got highs topping out at right around 450 and then lows 52-week lows around 140. So, that's a pretty giant swing in there. Um I I hope uh Matt that you were Actually, you never said if you were trading [music] coin or not. You just said you used coin. Um we won't probe on that. But uh for anybody who uh follows the methodology of buy the dip, well, uh there is a lot of dip buying over the past year. Uh I hope that you still have some that you have still have enough cash to to buy that dip. But since this low point back in February, which is crazy to see February this far back in the chart right now. I can't believe that we're almost you know, we're halfway through Q2. Yes. I can't believe we're this far along in the year. But we're we're making a rebound here, right? Um you know, bouncing up from 140 uh today pre-market. Coinbase [music] is trading at 194. Does kind of look like there's an uptrend forming long term. These are daily [music] candles that we're looking at here. Um recent earnings uh came out and uh turned out that there was a nice little bounce off of uh these earnings. Looks like bounced from a close at 195-ish up to a high of 220-ish. Uh Dylan, I'm going to put you on the spot here. If I told you you had to trade Coinbase this week, what are you doing? Okay. Well, this week I would probably go with Give me the technical indicators on the side. Just give me a little Just give me a little something something. Uh or the um What's it on the right side? Yeah, I thought it was the oscillator. Yeah, yeah, okay. Just give me the Give me the one week cuz I'm thinking of one week iron condor cuz I'm seeing some consolidation. It might have to be a little wide. I'm not sure how much credit I'll earn on it, but this is one week, a little bit of a sell. Look, I'm not going I'm not picking a direction cuz I can't. I know that we're bullish, but I I I like to keep my trades relatively short. So, I'd probably go back to that chart. I'd map out the bottom of that that red green Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go right around there. Call it 180. Call it 180. And then maybe a top at I think it is coming down before it goes back up. So, I don't mind putting a top maybe right at 220 right there. Okay. know I I don't have my chain up. I can pull it. That feels okay to me. But again, of course, this isn't financial advice. I would never give financial advice. Um So, that's kind of you know, that's that's what I see. advisor. Say that again? I said not unless you became a registered financial advisor. and you know, you're absolutely right, and maybe that's coming. Is but you know, Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Well, I said maybe. Maybe some That means it could be anything. Who knows? Um but I did pull Good luck, bro. What? Surprising. Um so, I just pulled up the contracts I formed that condor on my tradeer account just to see what we're working with. Now, I know this is pre-market prices aren't going to be exact. We are down a buck 50 from Friday's close. Uh it looks like we could potentially earn about 75 cents for a $2.50 wide spread. I I personally don't hate that. I don't know if that's Yeah, I'd like to see what the deltas are when we open and just kind of use that as my gauge of probability there, but usually when I'm trading iron condors, and this is just me personally, I like to look for condors where the wings are around the 20 delta, and I like to have [music] um I like to earn at least 20% on the spread. So, if I'm trading a $10 wide spread, I'd want to make 200 bucks on that. So, in this case, $2.50, I would need to make [music] 50 cents on that spread, and I would feel like it's worth it. So, right now, if I did get 75 cents in credit, and this was around the 20 delta, I'm getting about 30% of my spread. Um I like that. I would like that. And I probably I probably again, this is just me personally, I probably would look to take profit at around a 50% gain [music] on that iron condor. Hopefully get some beta decay over the next couple of days, and then, um you know, see where we're at in terms of price. But, uh you know, it's Coinbase has been trading in this range since mid-April. So, for about a month now. Um we've gone through earnings. Unless there's any other sort of catalyst, you know, I might I might actually take this trade. I think, Dylan, this is the first time in a while where we we put together a a trade idea live uh from Stock Market Live. we, dog? Who's we? This is me. If you want to take it, that's fine. about it. I'll set up my contest trader this week. You know, Ben, we should do this. No, we shouldn't. I was going to say we should just have an internal contest trading contest, but um I I immediately take that back. Uh Yeah. So, you know what would be interesting? Um we don't have to talk about it in the sense of Coinbase, um but [music] I mean, for me, maybe maybe I maybe I open a condor today, sell a condor today, and buy it back later today. Form a day [music] trade. Okay. Start preparing for this decrease in the PDT rule. Well, then let's talk about it. Yeah. Let's talk about it. So, high-level, what is happening? Uh where did Dylan go? Oh, no. We're making matters worse. There. All right. There it [laughter] is. So, June 4th and a lot more people are posting about this now. At first, Dylan, remember we were like, "Why is nobody talking about this? Like, what's Like, this is a big deal." People weren't talking about it. Now, a lot of people are are posting about it. Um on June 4th the [music] the pattern day trader rule, and there's more complications behind it, which we won't get into. Uh Matt, maybe you can if you want to, but to keep things simple as of right now [music] and previously for the last, I don't even know how many years 25 years. Yeah. You needed $25,000 in a margin account to be able to just continuously day trade. Otherwise, you were limited to uh three day trades in a rolling five-day period. If you place that fourth day trade um and you did not have 25k in your account, you would be [music] sent to PDT jail. And brokers would typically give you one get-out-of-jail-free card. Yep. And you could trade in your account. So, if you were in PDT jail, you could only close open positions. You could not open more positions. And that's 90 days jail, right? It's a 90-day It was, and then there was another rule a couple years ago that said, "No more 90 days. You're just in Yeah. You're You're in for life." Find another broker. You're in for violation. Yeah. Your violation was so terrible that we're putting you behind PDT bars for life. Oh, yeah. What a quick switch on that. Matt, what are your thoughts on on this uh maybe right of passage that's been involved for so long? Kind of the walls coming down. What do you think? It's so interesting. It's so interesting to hear your two perspectives on it. Obviously, I think that's interesting. Um [snorts] well, I think it's interesting in a couple of different ways. I think what we should do is really like give it a little bit of uh I'll put my my educator's hat on and say, "Why don't we talk about kind of the the history of where this came from?" Yes. I wrote a LinkedIn post about this probably, I don't know, a couple of days after it after it rolled back. Yep. Uh so, the PDT rule came out it came about in 2001 in the aftermath of the late '90s the '99 run-up in the Nasdaq, etc. The purpose of this was pretty legitimate. It was regulators trying to address risk in customer accounts that were using margin and taking, you know, some pretty significant risks during the day. But, the hard part about it is that it it tried to address risk with with a very abrupt kind of number, which you guys have just discussed, right? You became a pattern day trader after executing four or more trades in five business days. And I think it was like provided that those trades represented more than 6% of the total trades during that period or something. You know, there was some kind of like weird rule there. But, um once you became a PDT designated trader, you had to keep 25 grand in your account in order to continue to trade on margin, right? Yep. And so, it was a risk control rule, but it was really crude in the mechanism that it used, right? And plus, it was like this fixed account balance number, which is kind of silly. And so, not I I don't want to say silly. It was a very specific number that they chose. But, what that means is that a $24,900 account, right? Can be restricted from another day trade, whereas a $25,100 account uh has free access to the marketplace. And that difference says very little about actual risk. It had It's just an arbitrary number, right? And so, it's not really a risk-based, um, regulatory framework. And then, right? The market has changed. The argument here from FINRA to the SEC, and the the the reason why this happened is FINRA essentially asked the SEC to roll the rule back. Yeah. And so, what you're seeing right now is the actual process of the SEC saying, "Okay, FINRA, yes, we're willing to roll the rule back." Mhm. Um, and so, [music] but the reason the reasoning here is that the market has really changed, right? We have better broker surveillance at the brokerage level and account monitoring. You have way faster market access, way more active retail participation, and there's so much more there's so many more people using more options on a daily basis. Yeah. And so, and especially when you think about the rise of the zero DTE space and how much of the volume is in there. And so, the old rule was really trying to manage intraday leverage, but it did so in an in a kind of indirect way. The new rule is going to try to measure the leverage itself. Now, what that means is if it's not going to be a PDT rule that's there, where does that actually where does all that risk management happen? Mhm. Right? And so, the crux of what I wrote on LinkedIn about this was, "Okay, great. If we're going to respond to a maturing marketplace that has changed, and this rule has become outdated, then great, let's do it, but keep in mind all of that risk that was being kind of like bottlenecked in that little section is now like free to go all the way down to the brokerage side, right? And so, the brokers and the people who are managing risk need to be, essentially, A, aware of this, they are, all of them. But B, prepared to actually like manage the risk in a more active and, you know, like it they become essentially the oversight mechanism here, right? Now, Yeah. the brokerage layer, those people are incentivized to manage their own operational risk because they do it every day, they have hundreds, thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of customers that they have to kind of deal with. And so, um it's important for them to do that and they're financially incentivized to do it, but it's, you know, it's something that that bears repeating, right? Okay, great. We've removed this risk framework that is outdated. Now, all of that is going to start to filter down. And so, here's the thing that you also need to realize is that that June, what's the date? June 4th? June 4th. Yeah. And so, June 4th, um [music] they roll back the margin requirements on June 4th. However, brokerage firms have a transition period that runs all the way through October 20th of 2027. And so, the rule change is approved and the the framework is real, but the customer experience might not look exactly the same depending on which brokerage you have. Yeah, yeah. Because firms have implementation flexibility and a transition period here. So, that I think is the kind of like what you need to really make sure people understand is that like it doesn't just, right, poop and now like, yeah, everyone has It matters who who your brokerage is, what because remember, whatever you signed is to get access to the marketplace is through some brokerage or trading firm. That's the agreement that you have. You don't have an agreement with FINRA or the SEC, right? You have an agreement with a brokerage firm. Right. So, if you have questions about how they're implementing it, ask your brokerage firm because that's where you need to get the information. Definitely, definitely ask it. I would imagine that all of the big name brokerage firms are going to be ready to rock and roll on on June 4th. In fact, for anybody automating on PeakBot who's wondering, "Hey, are your guys' brokerages going to be good for June 4th?" Uh we've got an answers back from two of the three, we won't name um who right now, but um the answer is yes, June 4th is uh good to go. Uh just waiting for an answer on one remaining [music] broker, and then the three brokers that PeakBot is integrated with will be good to go on June 4th. In fact, we've got some bots coming out that are specifically designed around day trading um in a very very careful way. And uh just be on the the lookout for more information on that. We'll be talking about these bots over the next couple of weeks. Um Matt, I forget when we're having you on next, but it would be interesting to talk about those bots with you at another time after the release. Uh but um so so this rule has been around for quite a while. I know in in in the process of changing this rule, they the I think it was FINRA asked for comment letters. Was it the SEC that asked for comment letters? I know there was an overwhelming abundance of comment letters written. Um you didn't happen to write one. Can you write one in your position? Uh I don't It would probably be frowned upon if I wrote one individually because I would imagine that the legal team at the OCC Yeah. is is writing one that speaks for the organization. Makes sense. And um and so in that regard, I uh I am aligned with the comment letter that has come from the legal team at OCC. Um There you go. But I do have Right, I have conversations with people all the time like on social media and LinkedIn and whatever that reach out to me and are and are talking about like, well, can I write a comment letter? And I'm like, yeah. Get in there. Mix it up. Send them a letter. That's what it's That's what all that stuff is for. So. Right, right. So, one more question around this and then I I think we want to move into another exciting topic. But the question is maybe it's a loaded question, Matt. How do you see this change impacting volume in the retail space? Um, it is a loaded question, for sure. I will say this, beforehand, before this happened, before the rollback, uh, everyone has been talking about this forever, right? Which is part of the reason why when you guys were so surprised after it happened and like no one said anything about it, is because people have been like banging the table for 10 years on this thing. Yeah. Uh, and in conversations that I had with people that were pretty high up at large brokerage firms, let's say. I had I've gotten differing opinions, but all of them kind of being in the same direction, but with way different numbers attached to them. Some people that I've talked to have said they think there's going to be a 25% increase in retail volume because of this. Right? Which is significant if that's true. That's a lot. Other people have said this is going to be a moderate increase. It'll probably You'll probably see more people trading more because of this. Um, and both of those things can be true at the same time, also, which is interesting, right? You can have certain brokerages that are very retail focused where they're seeing it and their customer base is saying like take the shackles off and let me trade, right? This is crazy. I can't believe this. And they're seeing a situation which their volume might increase by that much. And there are other brokerages that might not be quite as retail focused or as kind of like day day trader focused that you know, are like, "Nah, our customers are slightly more long-term traders and it doesn't really they're not really that This isn't going to affect them that much." And so it will be interesting to see. Uh I will say that every single person that I talked to has said that it will probably increase volume on the retail side, but the numbers have been wildly disparate depending on who you talk to. So that's the best answer I can give you for that. What do you guys think? Ben, you first. I think based on the circles that we're involved in and all of the things that we hear from the retail side I think the 25% increase in volume sounds right, maybe even a little low. Uh think I think that uh retail is going to go crazy for a while and then they're going to realize, and this is just my opinion, I think that retail will realize "Hey, this is actually pretty dangerous." Like Like I think I think a lot of people are going to blow their accounts um and then they're going to take a step back and be like, "Oh, this is why the rules were in place." And it's unfortunate because you can play both sides of that coin, right? Because the other argument is "Hey, I'm in a position I'd love to get out right now, but I can't because then I'm going to be marked as a pit pattern day trader and then I'm going to jail." Uh PDT jail, not real jail. Yeah. Um PDT And uh you know, that that causes potentially catastrophic trades for people because, you know, psychologically they just don't want to do that to themselves, [music] right? I mean, they could open another brokerage account at another firm and continue to trade, but um for maybe they're attached to that brokerage. Uh so, that's my opinion. I think that volume is going to boom and then people are going to blow accounts and then realize, "Hey, maybe we should tone this down a little bit." I think from the software perspective in the trading space, we're going to see a lot of new products pop up and a lot of new automation tools probably pop [music] up as a result of this pattern day trader rule going away. So, in that regard, I'd say if you're a retail trader, you definitely have to do your homework on any software that you're buying um in the near future. Yeah, quickly I'll just I'll stack on that. I'll say I think it is going to be a huge growth in volume and total retail traders accounts. I don't think it's going to be immediate. Kind of like, you know, almost like this COVID bubble where it seemed like over the course of 3 weeks everybody was in and we did see that pop. I think it's going to be a slower burn. I think there's going to be the early movers. Those people are going to get burnt. The good traders who are ready for this, fantastic. But we know that's like 1%, you know, of retail traders who actually know what to do with this in my opinion. I think education and automation are going to be at the forefront here. Education, people absolutely need to know the upsides and the downsides of this. They need to have their hands held through the entire process and if they're smart, they find an automation provider like PeakBot who's letting them do this the right way because look, we stand firm that you know, at these options conferences at at trader conferences, we pose this question live on stage as we were exiting, "Hey, do we think if we're here in 5 or 10 years we're really going to still be talking about retail traders manually placing trades?" You know, I I don't think so. I think a vast majority of retail traders in 5 years are going to have automated trade execution. And it's there's going to be good and there's going to be bad just like there is now. And um I think education is the root of finding good automation. So, that's my take on it. That's good perspective. You know, I love that. You're speaking my language right there, bro. cuz you're here. I'm just kidding. [laughter] If I wasn't If I wasn't the third talking head on this show, you would have a totally different answer. I would say education is silly. Just get in there and throw all your money at it. And here's the reality. No. There's the clip. There's the clip right there. Um no, genuinely that's how I feel because we know that's the case now. We know that if our traders are educated and they lose, we have a chance of keeping them. If they're not educated and they lose, they're gone and they're probably never coming back. Notice I don't talk about when traders win with automation because nobody has anything to say when the bots are winning cuz they're That's the job. I'm paying for this bot to win. But anyway, I know we want to maybe discuss a couple of other things here and the bells are going to sneak up on us. Where do we want to go with it? Yeah, so let's let's shift and this will be the final topic and then we'll wrap for the day. Let's shift into um binaries. Uh so, trading by otherwise known today as event-based contracts. Right? Is there Is there a difference there because Okay, start Start by educating us on the difference because I know that when I view the term binaries and how those can be traded, I'm looking at Kalshi and Polymarket and thinking, "Oh, these are event-based contracts." Like, that's that's how my brain kind of thinks about this new way of trading now. Um but uh why don't Matt, I'm going to give you the floor for a second. Maybe you lay the foundation of trading binaries and how that's kind of evolved and and what we're looking at now. Yeah. So, there's a little bit of history here that people should know about, and this is part of the reason why um the exchange that he's talking about listing these things is able to do so in this way. The first thing that you should know is that Cboe previously launched binary options in 2008. Mhm. Mhm. And they traded. Not very much, but they traded. This is a classic case of uh let's call it product innovation that was before its time. Yeah. Uh I was standing in the SPX in 2008 when they launched these. We created a model to model them and trade them. We actually traded them and were market making in them. And I think we made like three trades. Like, no one basically no one traded them. I don't want I mean, for anyone from the Cboe that might be listening to this, I'm sorry, but we're all on the same page here. They launched. They did trade technically, but let's say they were not a durable centerpiece of the listed options market at that point in time. Yeah. Uh the initial plans included listing binary options on the S&P the SPX and the VIX. Now, this context in 2026 is very different, right? Retail traders are so much more accustomed to fixed outcome trades because of those two companies that you mentioned or multiple companies, right? There's lots of them. Yep. Yep. Um short-dated options volumes are a much larger part of the actual index volumes broadly. And so you have people that are a little bit more accustomed to trading these short-term options, right? And right, these prediction markets have familiarized a much wider audience with a simple like yes or no payoff diagram, right? And so these contracts are not new in concept. The market saw listed binaries in 2008. What is different now is really the ecosystem surrounding it in which they're being in which they're returning to. So I think that's the historical context that you need to have before we talk about like what Cboe is actually going to list. Got it. All right, I like that. And question, I know a name from back then, [music] I think it's Nadex. Wasn't Nadex one of the larger binary brokers at the time? Yep. Do you know what happened to Nadex? I'm not I'm not 100% sure. That's a good question. I think they might still be in business. But I I do know we did talk to somebody that used to work at Nadex and they were they were a little butt hurt around, you know, the the lack of success back then and then all of a [cough] sudden Kalshi and Polymarket pop up and uh you know, just a couple of of teenagers running a business make a you know, a billion-dollar impact on the industry. Yeah. Well, I mean the the let's say the the options industry is rife with stories of people who because there's a lot of crossover between the math of the options and the options trading and right, some wagering math, right? It's all probability. Yep. And so there's a lot of people specifically way back in the day, there were a ton of people who were both options market makers and like uh you know, bookies. I hate to say it, but there there were some people who were doing both of those things at the same time. The math behind the scenes is very similar. Right? Of course. One of those things is a listed and centrally cleared contract through the OCC and a listed exchange, and the other one is like a sweaty bag of hundreds, right? Like exchanging hands and Same odds, though. Well, I mean, let's be real. That's, you know, the the math They share certain mathematical backgrounds. And so, um the What I'm saying is there there's a lot of stories in the options business about people who are like, "Oh, I was, you know, I I had the idea for binaries back in the day, and no, you know, this prediction market thing, blah blah blah." Yes. Okay, great. But just like the Cboe in 2008, right? You were listing them in an in an environment that was not ready for those things, and now it's a different environment. And so, um But what that means is that, right? Like I always talk about the fact that, you know, if you're a bridge builder, you build bridges. And if you're an options exchange, you list options. And There you go. Like when when options exchanges get people asking for contracts like this and see large amounts of volume hitting the tape in, you know, potentially like direct competition to what they're doing, they're going to find a way to list an option that gives people the availability to to do this. And so, that's what you're seeing. Now, the reason why Cboe can do this theoretically quickly is because of the fact that the framework already exists, and they've already like they've already done the heavy lifting as far as the SEC and all of the regulators. They already got these contracts theoretically approved way back in the day, right? Yep. Yep. Yep. So, So, I was looking at something just from notes for the call for for today and I I think there's two important things to talk about, right? For me myself as the retail trader and somebody who's rooted in automation, I I sit here and I say, "Well, where does this fit into my portfolio? You know, does this just kind of replace, you know, a risk-defined spread or is it totally different? And And then also, is it truthfully pure binary? Is there a third outcome? Can it be this Is there a partial payout zone? Are we talking strict win or loss? I don't know if these things are and I'm just looking at notes from the call, so I could be totally talking out of my behind here, but um I think those are things worth talking about. The from the Cboe, they have said that these are zero or 100 payouts. Excellent. Right? Okay. And so, that is what they are. Cboe has indicated indicated indicated uh the contracts are expected to be zero DTE and one DTE options. Nice. Nice. That they are uh going to be PM settled. European style, which means there's no early exercise, right? I've been talking about this recently ever since the the zero DTE options rolled out onto single stocks, right? The difference between American and European options is the early exercise possibility. And they're going to be cash settled. And so, um I think that's it, right? Like zero DTE, one DTE, PM settled, European style, and cash settled options. Do you know if there's a minimum Sorry, sorry to interrupt you. Do you know if there's a minimum cash needed to place a trade? Like you know, or like how low can someone go? Can they This might sound stupid, but can somebody trade a dollar dollar trade on what that Uh I don't know that answer. Okay. It's a good question. Thank you. Um I'm not sure. You would need to like I think that's a question both for your brokerage and for the exchange. I would agree. Okay. So, I don't know if if you know this. I was talking to somebody at the Trader Fest about this and it seemed like this was going to be the case, but can you kind of stack your I'll call it trades, your kind of like you would stack your bets on the DraftKings to form a parlay? Can you stack your event-based trades to give yourself Better odds. a better payout ratio? Um but obviously harder to to hit on those. Yeah, I don't think they're going to the I don't think they want anything to do with anything that looks like a parlay. Good answer. [snorts] No no parlays. All right. I I mean I don't want to speak for I don't want to speak for one of our member exchanges, uh but I would guess that there is a very delicate balance and uh the idea that the part of the reason why these things are being kind of rolled back out is obviously the amount of volume that people are are trading in the prediction markets. Yep. And like I said, the environment in which they're re-rolling these back out is completely different, but I think um the comparison is very obvious at the payoff level to the prediction markets, right? But the more important difference here is the infrastructure underneath. Yeah. Right? I mean, that's that's really And in many of the conversations that I've had with people is I have said like I think this is an this is a very interesting time. Here's the reason why. Number one, uh we have had these prediction markets explode at the way that they have, but we are also at this weird inflection point with the regulatory space where there's a bit of a land grab going on from the CFTC's perspective saying like telling the states the states are trying to essentially kind of regulate this through the court system because there are a bunch of casinos and people who are angry and they're like this is our this is our Yes. Like what are you guys doing? And so but you're seeing that happen at a state level, right? Individual states doing that and the CFTC has come out and said like we are regulating this, right? They're they're land grabbing it and saying you guys back off. We're going to do this, right? There's also another competing element to this which is like people are looking at the CFTC. The CFTC relative to the SEC is a very very small organization Yeah. people-wise. Yeah. Okay. And so there's an interesting element there. It's like okay, well, you guys want to regulate regulate it. That's fine. There's like people trading billions of dollars of this stuff on these exchanges and it's happening real fast, right? Like Some bonuses and overtime coming. Exactly. And then what you have is this other weird element happening where like you get that payoff thing where Kalshi is saying it's yes and Polymarket is saying it's no and one of them settles to an oracle and one of them settles to an internal like you know like like a panel of experts that they have on there you know whatever. It's you know and so here's why I think this is interesting is what you're given in this situation is a compelling alternative to a situation that might be getting very kind of like murky Yeah. very quickly. Regulatory-wise and just how the contracts settle. And that might be me talking my own book in the listed centrally cleared option space, but that's essentially what this is. It kind of has many of the elements of that prediction market, but it is a if it pending regulatory full approval on June 15th, which is when they're talking about launching these things. These are centrally cleared through the OCC theoretically and they're listed options on a you know, on a on a uh on an options exchange that has been around for a long time. And so, that I think is an interesting part of this, right? Is I and I think that could present a an alternative that people find really compelling for lots of different reasons. Mhm. I think it's going to be chaos in like the best way. What I find the most interesting about this and and this is a bit more macro, but this is just another great example and let me know if you guys disagree of retail trading being the focus and the priority to continue to expand. This is not like I don't think these moves are being done for market makers. I don't think these moves are being done for funds and the big money. one one of my questions, sorry to cut you off, Tim. One of my questions was institutions are are are they planning on getting into into binaries here? Uh I I would imagine that this is made for retail. That's how it feels. What Yeah, what's your thought? Oh, maybe we move on. I don't know. I don't know. I mean No, I'm I'm happy to have that conversation. I just think it's like Who's it for? I bridge builders build bridges and options exchange list options. Like I don't know what else to say about that other than just like Yeah. Everybody's going to have their way with it and the smart money's going to make money and the dumb money's going to lose it. It's just like always, I guess. I'm not I'm not commenting on that. For me for the from the retail trader perspective, I'm personally going to be looking at this type of trading to hedge my other trades, right? Um that's how I'm kind of viewing it. Otherwise, again, my personal opinion, I kind of feel like it's just gambling. Um which you could argue trading is also gambling, right? Well, that's in certain ways. But there's I'd like to think that, you know, there's a a certain amount of math behind it and you can kind of you think [music] through things differently than just betting that the the Yankees are going to unfortunately lose to the Mets on a Sunday afternoon. Um so for me for me, I'm going to I'm going to use this as uh a hedging mechanism in my take. Here's a good take. I don't think I think what defines something as gambling or not gambling is if you're educated. God, I know Matt's going to love this. Oh, yes. Right? It's not a gamble I know. Clip it. Can we high-five Can we high-five through the screen? Yeah, there you go. It is not a gamble if you know what you're doing. I am not going to put money on the Knicks or the Yankees or really any New York sports team, but I feel a lot better doing it in a space that I'm comfortable. Give me a mini S&P. Give me Give me something to bet on that I'm doing every day. Um I think it's going to be just like anything else exciting and terrifying all at once and and we'll see it unfold live in real time. So guys, um we got 10 minutes till the bell. Is there anything else we want to um put out there before we wrap? Matt? Anything else you want to say to the audience before we go? So I've I've said my piece. You've said it all. I'll throw this I'll throw this up on screen here. This is Matt's LinkedIn account. This is the post that he posted about PDT. Oh, yeah, that's the PDT rule. about a month ago. Very interesting. Matt does post a lot of very interesting content, so go ahead and follow him on LinkedIn. Uh you can see that his name really only has one T in it. weren't sure. And uh huh so follow him. A lot of great posts. Read more about this PDT rule that is going to be changing taking effect on June 4th. Obviously as we talked about earlier that might not be the case depending for you personally depending on what brokerage you are trading in and um keep an eye on things to come for binary level trading. Right? That's going to be The listed date for that pending regular full regulatory approval is June 15th. Okay. I didn't know if we could talk about date or anything like that. He said it. He said it. Okay. All right. And by the way, Matt likes you like the word prediction markets better than event phase contracts I I take it. I just think that I'm cool with either. I will say I prefer the term wagering to to betting. Yeah, betting. Especially when we're talking about you know, it's like I said, it's one of those interesting things. It's the the shared math behind the scenes of all of this stuff is the thing that unites all of these and like some of them are fully compliant and regulatory you know, based contracts and some of them aren't. And so you know, or some of them have a let's say some of them have a slightly more convoluted regulatory environment. Yes. We're all working right? The prediction markets base I would say is a evolve and evolving regulatory environment. We're all working with the same numbers. It's just a matter of how official you want it to be. So excellent. I think this was this was a fantastic show. Matt, thanks so much for for joining us again. We will have you back on again very soon to see how some of these things have rolled out. This is all happening in the next month. So it'll be busy. It'll be fun. Thanks so much and as always we'll see you at the peak. Thanks everybody. Take care. You know [music] how the financial world goes. Here comes the buzzkill. Please make sure to take some time to read this boring disclaimer. We will owe [music] you one.